Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $618,204$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{801,216.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 247.0)}}\) (asimptote \(801,216.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,371$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,448.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,448.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $599,833$ on 2020-12-17

Italy

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,906,377$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,220$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,969.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(39,969.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $635,343$ on 2020-12-17

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,087$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{489,538.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 346.4)}}\) (asimptote \(489,538.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,549$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,043$ on 2020-12-17

Slovenia

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,043$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,233$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,617$ on 2020-12-17

North Macedonia

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,251$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,225$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,613$ on 2020-12-17

Spain

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,785,421$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,107,400.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 398.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,107,400.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,777$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,653.6}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 80.7)}}\) (asimptote \(42,653.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,586,268$ on 2020-12-17

Montenegro

Population $628,066$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,995$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 279.0)}}\) (asimptote \(92,020.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $614$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,355.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 277.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,355.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,332$ on 2020-12-17

United Kingdom

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,954,268$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66,150$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,801.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,801.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,883,995$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Iceland recovered 89%
Austria recovered 57%
Armenia recovered 54%
Poland recovered 45%
Romania recovered 28%
Malta recovered 25%
Italy recovered 21%
Montenegro recovered 17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 10%
Bulgaria recovered 8%
Ukraine recovered 4%

Iceland

Population $341,243$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,588$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-12-17

Austria

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332,828$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{583,850.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 279.7)}}\) (asimptote \(583,850.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,982$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,531$ on 2020-12-17

Armenia

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,392$ on 2020-12-17

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,581$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,821$ on 2020-12-17

Poland

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,171,854$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,318,797.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 247.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,318,797.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,345$ on 2020-12-17

Active

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $244,160$ on 2020-12-17