Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Italy
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Slovenia
  • North Macedonia
  • Spain
  • Montenegro
  • United Kingdom
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Austria
  • Armenia
  • Poland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $618,204$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{801,216.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 247.0)}}\) (asimptote \(801,216.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,371$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,448.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,448.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $599,833$ on 2020-12-17

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,906,377$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,220$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,969.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(39,969.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $635,343$ on 2020-12-17

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,087$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{489,538.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 346.4)}}\) (asimptote \(489,538.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,549$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,043$ on 2020-12-17

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,043$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,233$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,617$ on 2020-12-17

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,251$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,225$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,613$ on 2020-12-17

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,785,421$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,107,400.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 398.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,107,400.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,777$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,653.6}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 80.7)}}\) (asimptote \(42,653.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,586,268$ on 2020-12-17

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,995$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 279.0)}}\) (asimptote \(92,020.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $614$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,355.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 277.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,355.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,332$ on 2020-12-17

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,954,268$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66,150$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,801.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,801.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,883,995$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 89%
Austria recovered 57%
Armenia recovered 54%
Poland recovered 45%
Romania recovered 28%
Malta recovered 25%
Italy recovered 21%
Montenegro recovered 17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 10%
Bulgaria recovered 8%
Ukraine recovered 4%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,588$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-12-17

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332,828$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{583,850.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 279.7)}}\) (asimptote \(583,850.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,982$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,531$ on 2020-12-17

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,392$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,581$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,821$ on 2020-12-17

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,171,854$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,318,797.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 247.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,318,797.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,345$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $244,160$ on 2020-12-17